OwlAI
US Treasury yield curve today: is it inverted?
Data as of Oct 12, 2026
5.22 % 10Y
10-year minus 3-month: +0.99 percentage points (normal curve).
| Maturity | Today | 1 month ago | 1 year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 4.23 % | 3.94 % | 4.01 % |
| 6M | 4.30 % | 4.00 % | 3.82 % |
| 1Y | 4.44 % | 4.15 % | 3.66 % |
| 2Y | 4.75 % | 4.39 % | 3.58 % |
| 5Y | 4.99 % | 4.57 % | 3.72 % |
| 10Y | 5.22 % | 4.80 % | 4.13 % |
| 30Y | 5.60 % | 5.25 % | 4.72 % |
What it is
The yield curve shows how much the US government pays to borrow at each maturity. Normally long maturities pay more than short ones.
How to read it
When the 10-year yield falls below the 3-month one, the curve is "inverted", which in the past has come before several recessions. This page shows the present only: it is not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
What is an inverted yield curve?
When short maturities pay more than long ones, for example the 3-month bill more than the 10-year note.
Why the 10-year minus 3-month gap?
It is one of the gaps economists follow most closely to describe the shape of the curve.
What drives short-term yields?
Mainly the Federal Reserve's policy rate; long-term yields depend more on expected inflation and growth.
Sources
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